MCI vs NEW
Manchester City (home) vs Newcastle United · model confidence 85% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
MCI win 60.2% fair 1.66
Draw 19.8% fair 5.04
NEW win 19.9% fair 5.01
Expected Goals
MCI
2.27
—
1.19
NEW
| Over 2.5 goals | 67.0% | fair 1.49 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 33.0% | fair 3.03 |
| Both teams to score | 62.3% | fair 1.61 |
Most Likely Scores
| MCI 2-1 NEW | 9.6% | |
| MCI 1-1 NEW | 8.5% | |
| MCI 2-0 NEW | 8.1% | |
| MCI 3-1 NEW | 7.3% | |
| MCI 1-0 NEW | 7.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 8.5 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.6 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 7.3 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.5 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 2.4 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: MCI goals · Columns: NEW goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).