BRE vs COV
Brentford (home) vs Coventry City · model confidence 75% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
BRE win 62.0% fair 1.61
Draw 20.2% fair 4.94
COV win 17.8% fair 5.63
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 65.0% / 19.6% / 15.4%.
Expected Goals
BRE
2.15
—
0.94
COV
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.8% | fair 1.67 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 40.2% | fair 2.49 |
| Both teams to score | 54.0% | fair 1.85 |
Most Likely Scores
| BRE 2-0 COV | 10.5% | |
| BRE 2-1 COV | 9.9% | |
| BRE 1-0 COV | 9.7% | |
| BRE 1-1 COV | 9.2% | |
| BRE 3-0 COV | 7.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 9.2 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.5 | 7.1 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 2.6 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: BRE goals · Columns: COV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).