CHE vs IPS
Chelsea (home) vs Ipswich Town · model confidence 75% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
CHE win 65.7% fair 1.52
Draw 17.8% fair 5.61
IPS win 16.4% fair 6.09
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 69.3% / 16.8% / 13.9%.
Expected Goals
CHE
2.55
—
1.08
IPS
| Over 2.5 goals | 70.2% | fair 1.42 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 29.8% | fair 3.36 |
| Both teams to score | 60.8% | fair 1.65 |
Most Likely Scores
| CHE 2-1 IPS | 9.3% | |
| CHE 2-0 IPS | 8.7% | |
| CHE 3-1 IPS | 7.9% | |
| CHE 3-0 IPS | 7.4% | |
| CHE 1-1 IPS | 7.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 7.3 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.3 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.4 | 7.9 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.7 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 3.9 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: CHE goals · Columns: IPS goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).