EVE vs LEE
Everton (home) vs Leeds United · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
EVE win 40.3% fair 2.48
Draw 27.4% fair 3.65
LEE win 32.3% fair 3.10
Expected Goals
EVE
1.25
—
1.10
LEE
| Over 2.5 goals | 41.8% | fair 2.39 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 58.2% | fair 1.72 |
| Both teams to score | 47.7% | fair 2.10 |
Most Likely Scores
| EVE 1-1 LEE | 13.1% | |
| EVE 1-0 LEE | 11.9% | |
| EVE 0-1 LEE | 10.5% | |
| EVE 0-0 LEE | 9.5% | |
| EVE 2-1 LEE | 8.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 10.5 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.1 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.2 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: EVE goals · Columns: LEE goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).