FUL vs NFO
Fulham (home) vs Nottingham Forest · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
FUL win 42.3% fair 2.36
Draw 27.3% fair 3.66
NFO win 30.3% fair 3.30
Expected Goals
FUL
1.30
—
1.06
NFO
| Over 2.5 goals | 41.8% | fair 2.39 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 58.2% | fair 1.72 |
| Both teams to score | 47.4% | fair 2.11 |
Most Likely Scores
| FUL 1-1 NFO | 13.0% | |
| FUL 1-0 NFO | 12.3% | |
| FUL 0-1 NFO | 10.0% | |
| FUL 0-0 NFO | 9.5% | |
| FUL 2-1 NFO | 8.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 10.0 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.0 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.4 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: FUL goals · Columns: NFO goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).