BHA vs HUL
Brighton & Hove Albion (home) vs Hull City · model confidence 75% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
BHA win 68.1% fair 1.47
Draw 17.6% fair 5.68
HUL win 14.3% fair 7.01
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 72.2% / 16.5% / 11.3%.
Expected Goals
BHA
2.46
—
0.87
HUL
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.6% | fair 1.55 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 35.4% | fair 2.82 |
| Both teams to score | 53.1% | fair 1.88 |
Most Likely Scores
| BHA 2-0 HUL | 10.8% | |
| BHA 2-1 HUL | 9.4% | |
| BHA 3-0 HUL | 8.9% | |
| BHA 1-0 HUL | 8.8% | |
| BHA 3-1 HUL | 7.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 7.7 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.4 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.9 | 7.7 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 5.5 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 4.3 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: BHA goals · Columns: HUL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).