SUN vs AVL
Sunderland (home) vs Aston Villa · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
SUN win 29.1% fair 3.44
Draw 24.2% fair 4.13
AVL win 46.7% fair 2.14
Expected Goals
SUN
1.18
—
1.67
AVL
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.1% | fair 1.85 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 45.9% | fair 2.18 |
| Both teams to score | 56.1% | fair 1.78 |
Most Likely Scores
| SUN 1-1 AVL | 11.4% | |
| SUN 0-1 AVL | 9.7% | |
| SUN 1-2 AVL | 9.5% | |
| SUN 0-2 AVL | 8.1% | |
| SUN 1-0 AVL | 6.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 9.7 | 8.1 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 11.4 | 9.5 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 6.7 | 5.6 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: SUN goals · Columns: AVL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).