ARS vs LIV
Arsenal (home) vs Liverpool · model confidence 88% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
ARS win 51.1% fair 1.96
Draw 25.6% fair 3.90
LIV win 23.3% fair 4.29
Expected Goals
ARS
1.53
—
0.92
LIV
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.5% | fair 2.24 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 55.5% | fair 1.80 |
| Both teams to score | 47.3% | fair 2.11 |
Most Likely Scores
| ARS 1-0 LIV | 13.1% | |
| ARS 1-1 LIV | 12.1% | |
| ARS 2-0 LIV | 10.1% | |
| ARS 2-1 LIV | 9.3% | |
| ARS 0-0 LIV | 8.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 7.9 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 12.1 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.3 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: ARS goals · Columns: LIV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).