EVE vs NEW
Everton (home) vs Newcastle United · model confidence 83% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
EVE win 33.9% fair 2.95
Draw 25.9% fair 3.86
NEW win 40.2% fair 2.49
Expected Goals
EVE
1.22
—
1.40
NEW
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.7% | fair 2.05 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 51.3% | fair 1.95 |
| Both teams to score | 53.1% | fair 1.88 |
Most Likely Scores
| EVE 1-1 NEW | 12.4% | |
| EVE 0-1 NEW | 10.2% | |
| EVE 1-0 NEW | 8.9% | |
| EVE 1-2 NEW | 8.7% | |
| EVE 2-1 NEW | 7.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 10.2 | 7.1 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.4 | 8.7 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.6 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: EVE goals · Columns: NEW goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).