LEE vs BOU
Leeds United (home) vs AFC Bournemouth · model confidence 79% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
LEE win 41.2% fair 2.43
Draw 24.8% fair 4.04
BOU win 34.1% fair 2.94
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 40.6% / 24.9% / 34.5%.
Expected Goals
LEE
1.50
—
1.37
BOU
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.7% | fair 1.83 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 45.3% | fair 2.21 |
| Both teams to score | 57.9% | fair 1.73 |
Most Likely Scores
| LEE 1-1 BOU | 11.7% | |
| LEE 2-1 BOU | 8.8% | |
| LEE 1-0 BOU | 8.5% | |
| LEE 1-2 BOU | 8.0% | |
| LEE 0-1 BOU | 7.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 7.8 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 11.7 | 8.0 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.8 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.4 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: LEE goals · Columns: BOU goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).