BRE vs MUN
Brentford (home) vs Manchester United · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
BRE win 46.6% fair 2.15
Draw 23.6% fair 4.24
MUN win 29.8% fair 3.35
Expected Goals
BRE
1.73
—
1.33
MUN
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.0% | fair 1.69 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 41.0% | fair 2.44 |
| Both teams to score | 60.5% | fair 1.65 |
Most Likely Scores
| BRE 1-1 MUN | 10.8% | |
| BRE 2-1 MUN | 9.3% | |
| BRE 1-0 MUN | 8.1% | |
| BRE 1-2 MUN | 7.2% | |
| BRE 2-0 MUN | 7.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 6.2 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 10.8 | 7.2 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.3 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.4 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: BRE goals · Columns: MUN goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).