NEW vs BHA
Newcastle United (home) vs Brighton & Hove Albion · model confidence 83% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
NEW win 38.4% fair 2.60
Draw 23.1% fair 4.33
BHA win 38.5% fair 2.60
Expected Goals
NEW
1.64
—
1.68
BHA
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.3% | fair 1.55 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 35.7% | fair 2.80 |
| Both teams to score | 65.5% | fair 1.53 |
Most Likely Scores
| NEW 1-1 BHA | 10.0% | |
| NEW 1-2 BHA | 8.4% | |
| NEW 2-1 BHA | 8.2% | |
| NEW 2-2 BHA | 6.9% | |
| NEW 0-1 BHA | 6.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 6.1 | 5.1 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.0 | 8.4 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 8.2 | 6.9 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.5 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: NEW goals · Columns: BHA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).