HUL vs CRY
Hull City (home) vs Crystal Palace · model confidence 75% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
HUL win 33.9% fair 2.95
Draw 25.6% fair 3.90
CRY win 40.5% fair 2.47
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 32.0% / 25.9% / 42.1%.
Expected Goals
HUL
1.22
—
1.43
CRY
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.4% | fair 2.02 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50.6% | fair 1.98 |
| Both teams to score | 53.6% | fair 1.87 |
Most Likely Scores
| HUL 1-1 CRY | 12.3% | |
| HUL 0-1 CRY | 10.1% | |
| HUL 1-2 CRY | 8.8% | |
| HUL 1-0 CRY | 8.6% | |
| HUL 2-1 CRY | 7.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 10.1 | 7.3 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.3 | 8.8 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.5 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: HUL goals · Columns: CRY goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).