AVL vs IPS
Aston Villa (home) vs Ipswich Town · model confidence 75% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
AVL win 60.7% fair 1.65
Draw 20.2% fair 4.94
IPS win 19.1% fair 5.24
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 63.3% / 19.6% / 17.1%.
Expected Goals
AVL
2.19
—
1.05
IPS
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.9% | fair 1.59 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 37.1% | fair 2.70 |
| Both teams to score | 57.8% | fair 1.73 |
Most Likely Scores
| AVL 2-1 IPS | 9.9% | |
| AVL 2-0 IPS | 9.4% | |
| AVL 1-1 IPS | 9.0% | |
| AVL 1-0 IPS | 8.6% | |
| AVL 3-1 IPS | 7.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 9.0 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.9 | 7.2 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 2.5 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: AVL goals · Columns: IPS goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).