CHE vs SUN
Chelsea (home) vs Sunderland · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
CHE win 64.4% fair 1.55
Draw 18.9% fair 5.28
SUN win 16.7% fair 5.99
Expected Goals
CHE
2.33
—
1.01
SUN
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.7% | fair 1.55 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 35.3% | fair 2.83 |
| Both teams to score | 57.2% | fair 1.75 |
Most Likely Scores
| CHE 2-1 SUN | 9.7% | |
| CHE 2-0 SUN | 9.7% | |
| CHE 1-1 SUN | 8.4% | |
| CHE 1-0 SUN | 8.3% | |
| CHE 3-1 SUN | 7.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 8.4 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.7 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 3.2 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: CHE goals · Columns: SUN goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).