MCI vs NFO
Manchester City (home) vs Nottingham Forest · model confidence 84% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
MCI win 66.1% fair 1.51
Draw 19.1% fair 5.23
NFO win 14.8% fair 6.76
Expected Goals
MCI
2.21
—
0.85
NFO
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.0% | fair 1.69 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 41.0% | fair 2.44 |
| Both teams to score | 51.0% | fair 1.96 |
Most Likely Scores
| MCI 2-0 NFO | 11.4% | |
| MCI 1-0 NFO | 10.4% | |
| MCI 2-1 NFO | 9.7% | |
| MCI 1-1 NFO | 8.8% | |
| MCI 3-0 NFO | 8.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 8.8 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 11.4 | 9.7 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 8.4 | 7.2 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 4.7 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 3.1 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: MCI goals · Columns: NFO goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).