LIV vs CRY
Liverpool (home) vs Crystal Palace · model confidence 85% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
LIV win 63.7% fair 1.57
Draw 20.0% fair 5.00
CRY win 16.3% fair 6.13
Expected Goals
LIV
2.13
—
0.91
CRY
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.5% | fair 1.71 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 41.5% | fair 2.41 |
| Both teams to score | 52.6% | fair 1.90 |
Most Likely Scores
| LIV 2-0 CRY | 10.9% | |
| LIV 1-0 CRY | 10.2% | |
| LIV 2-1 CRY | 9.9% | |
| LIV 1-1 CRY | 9.3% | |
| LIV 3-0 CRY | 7.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 9.3 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.9 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.7 | 7.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 2.6 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: LIV goals · Columns: CRY goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).