CRY vs CHE
Crystal Palace (home) vs Chelsea · model confidence 84% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
CRY win 32.2% fair 3.10
Draw 23.0% fair 4.34
CHE win 44.7% fair 2.23
Expected Goals
CRY
1.43
—
1.79
CHE
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.6% | fair 1.60 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 37.4% | fair 2.67 |
| Both teams to score | 63.5% | fair 1.58 |
Most Likely Scores
| CRY 1-1 CHE | 10.2% | |
| CRY 1-2 CHE | 9.2% | |
| CRY 2-1 CHE | 7.3% | |
| CRY 0-1 CHE | 7.1% | |
| CRY 2-2 CHE | 6.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 7.1 | 6.4 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 10.2 | 9.2 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 7.3 | 6.6 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: CRY goals · Columns: CHE goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).