ARS vs BRE
Arsenal (home) vs Brentford · model confidence 86% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
ARS win 66.0% fair 1.52
Draw 19.8% fair 5.06
BRE win 14.2% fair 7.03
Expected Goals
ARS
2.09
—
0.77
BRE
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.5% | fair 1.83 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 45.5% | fair 2.20 |
| Both teams to score | 47.2% | fair 2.12 |
Most Likely Scores
| ARS 2-0 BRE | 12.5% | |
| ARS 1-0 BRE | 11.9% | |
| ARS 2-1 BRE | 9.6% | |
| ARS 1-1 BRE | 9.2% | |
| ARS 3-0 BRE | 8.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 9.2 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 12.5 | 9.6 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 8.7 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 2.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: ARS goals · Columns: BRE goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).