SUN vs LIV
Sunderland (home) vs Liverpool · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
SUN win 20.4% fair 4.91
Draw 22.0% fair 4.55
LIV win 57.7% fair 1.73
Expected Goals
SUN
0.92
—
1.92
LIV
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.9% | fair 1.85 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 46.1% | fair 2.17 |
| Both teams to score | 51.2% | fair 1.95 |
Most Likely Scores
| SUN 0-1 LIV | 11.3% | |
| SUN 0-2 LIV | 10.8% | |
| SUN 1-1 LIV | 10.3% | |
| SUN 1-2 LIV | 9.9% | |
| SUN 0-3 LIV | 6.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 11.3 | 10.8 | 6.9 | 3.3 | 1.8 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 10.3 | 9.9 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.7 |
| 2 | 2.5 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: SUN goals · Columns: LIV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).