LEE vs MCI
Leeds United (home) vs Manchester City · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
LEE win 24.2% fair 4.14
Draw 22.2% fair 4.51
MCI win 53.6% fair 1.86
Expected Goals
LEE
1.12
—
1.94
MCI
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.0% | fair 1.70 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 41.0% | fair 2.44 |
| Both teams to score | 57.7% | fair 1.73 |
Most Likely Scores
| LEE 1-1 MCI | 10.2% | |
| LEE 1-2 MCI | 9.9% | |
| LEE 0-1 MCI | 9.1% | |
| LEE 0-2 MCI | 8.8% | |
| LEE 1-3 MCI | 6.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 9.1 | 8.8 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 1.5 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 10.2 | 9.9 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.7 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 5.7 | 5.5 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: LEE goals · Columns: MCI goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).