MUN vs NEW
Manchester United (home) vs Newcastle United · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
MUN win 38.3% fair 2.61
Draw 24.0% fair 4.16
NEW win 37.7% fair 2.65
Expected Goals
MUN
1.52
—
1.54
NEW
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.0% | fair 1.69 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 41.0% | fair 2.44 |
| Both teams to score | 61.4% | fair 1.63 |
Most Likely Scores
| MUN 1-1 NEW | 11.0% | |
| MUN 1-2 NEW | 8.5% | |
| MUN 2-1 NEW | 8.3% | |
| MUN 0-1 NEW | 7.2% | |
| MUN 1-0 NEW | 7.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 7.2 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.0 | 8.5 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.3 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.2 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: MUN goals · Columns: NEW goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).