BHA vs BOU
Brighton & Hove Albion (home) vs AFC Bournemouth · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
BHA win 57.8% fair 1.73
Draw 20.2% fair 4.95
BOU win 22.0% fair 4.54
Expected Goals
BHA
2.26
—
1.29
BOU
| Over 2.5 goals | 68.8% | fair 1.45 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 31.2% | fair 3.20 |
| Both teams to score | 64.8% | fair 1.54 |
Most Likely Scores
| BHA 2-1 BOU | 9.5% | |
| BHA 1-1 BOU | 8.4% | |
| BHA 2-0 BOU | 7.4% | |
| BHA 3-1 BOU | 7.1% | |
| BHA 1-0 BOU | 6.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 8.4 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.5 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 7.1 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 4.0 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 2.2 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: BHA goals · Columns: BOU goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).