IPS vs COV
Ipswich Town (home) vs Coventry City · model confidence 67% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
IPS win 48.9% fair 2.05
Draw 23.8% fair 4.20
COV win 27.3% fair 3.66
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 49.8% / 23.7% / 26.5%.
Expected Goals
IPS
1.73
—
1.20
COV
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.9% | fair 1.79 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44.1% | fair 2.27 |
| Both teams to score | 57.3% | fair 1.74 |
Most Likely Scores
| IPS 1-1 COV | 11.1% | |
| IPS 2-1 COV | 9.6% | |
| IPS 1-0 COV | 9.3% | |
| IPS 2-0 COV | 8.0% | |
| IPS 1-2 COV | 6.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 6.4 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 11.1 | 6.6 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.6 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.5 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: IPS goals · Columns: COV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).