EVE vs AVL
Everton (home) vs Aston Villa · model confidence 83% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
EVE win 34.4% fair 2.90
Draw 26.2% fair 3.81
AVL win 39.3% fair 2.54
Expected Goals
EVE
1.21
—
1.36
AVL
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.4% | fair 2.11 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 52.6% | fair 1.90 |
| Both teams to score | 52.2% | fair 1.92 |
Most Likely Scores
| EVE 1-1 AVL | 12.6% | |
| EVE 0-1 AVL | 10.4% | |
| EVE 1-0 AVL | 9.3% | |
| EVE 1-2 AVL | 8.6% | |
| EVE 0-0 AVL | 7.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 10.4 | 7.1 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.6 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.6 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: EVE goals · Columns: AVL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).