NFO vs HUL
Nottingham Forest (home) vs Hull City · model confidence 74% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
NFO win 50.4% fair 1.98
Draw 25.9% fair 3.85
HUL win 23.6% fair 4.23
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 51.4% / 26.3% / 22.3%.
Expected Goals
NFO
1.49
—
0.88
HUL
| Over 2.5 goals | 42.1% | fair 2.37 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 57.9% | fair 1.73 |
| Both teams to score | 45.3% | fair 2.21 |
Most Likely Scores
| NFO 1-0 HUL | 14.0% | |
| NFO 1-1 HUL | 12.3% | |
| NFO 2-0 HUL | 10.4% | |
| NFO 0-0 HUL | 9.4% | |
| NFO 2-1 HUL | 9.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 14.0 | 12.3 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.1 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: NFO goals · Columns: HUL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).