BHA vs MUN
Brighton & Hove Albion (home) vs Manchester United · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
BHA win 57.8% fair 1.73
Draw 20.5% fair 4.87
MUN win 21.7% fair 4.62
Expected Goals
BHA
2.19
—
1.22
MUN
| Over 2.5 goals | 66.3% | fair 1.51 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 33.7% | fair 2.97 |
| Both teams to score | 62.6% | fair 1.60 |
Most Likely Scores
| BHA 2-1 MUN | 9.7% | |
| BHA 1-1 MUN | 8.8% | |
| BHA 2-0 MUN | 7.9% | |
| BHA 1-0 MUN | 7.2% | |
| BHA 3-1 MUN | 7.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 8.8 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.7 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 7.1 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 2.1 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: BHA goals · Columns: MUN goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).