LIV vs COV
Liverpool (home) vs Coventry City · model confidence 77% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
LIV win 73.4% fair 1.36
Draw 15.6% fair 6.40
COV win 10.9% fair 9.14
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 77.9% / 14.3% / 7.8%.
Expected Goals
LIV
2.57
—
0.69
COV
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.4% | fair 1.58 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 36.6% | fair 2.73 |
| Both teams to score | 46.2% | fair 2.17 |
Most Likely Scores
| LIV 2-0 COV | 12.6% | |
| LIV 3-0 COV | 10.8% | |
| LIV 1-0 COV | 9.8% | |
| LIV 2-1 COV | 8.8% | |
| LIV 3-1 COV | 7.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 12.6 | 8.8 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 10.8 | 7.5 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 7.0 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 5.9 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: LIV goals · Columns: COV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).