BRE vs CRY
Brentford (home) vs Crystal Palace · model confidence 83% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
BRE win 49.7% fair 2.01
Draw 23.3% fair 4.28
CRY win 27.0% fair 3.70
Expected Goals
BRE
1.78
—
1.24
CRY
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.1% | fair 1.72 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 41.9% | fair 2.39 |
| Both teams to score | 59.0% | fair 1.69 |
Most Likely Scores
| BRE 1-1 CRY | 10.8% | |
| BRE 2-1 CRY | 9.6% | |
| BRE 1-0 CRY | 8.7% | |
| BRE 2-0 CRY | 7.8% | |
| BRE 1-2 CRY | 6.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 6.0 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 10.8 | 6.7 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.6 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.7 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: BRE goals · Columns: CRY goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).