FUL vs ARS
Fulham (home) vs Arsenal · model confidence 86% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
FUL win 19.0% fair 5.26
Draw 23.5% fair 4.25
ARS win 57.5% fair 1.74
Expected Goals
FUL
0.78
—
1.72
ARS
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.6% | fair 2.19 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 54.4% | fair 1.84 |
| Both teams to score | 44.4% | fair 2.25 |
Most Likely Scores
| FUL 0-1 ARS | 14.1% | |
| FUL 0-2 ARS | 12.2% | |
| FUL 1-1 ARS | 11.0% | |
| FUL 1-2 ARS | 9.5% | |
| FUL 0-0 ARS | 8.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 14.1 | 12.2 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 1.4 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 11.0 | 9.5 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 2.5 | 4.3 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: FUL goals · Columns: ARS goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).