COV vs BRE
Coventry City (home) vs Brentford · model confidence 75% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
COV win 27.1% fair 3.69
Draw 23.3% fair 4.29
BRE win 49.6% fair 2.02
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 24.0% / 23.2% / 52.8%.
Expected Goals
COV
1.13
—
1.79
BRE
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.0% | fair 1.79 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44.0% | fair 2.27 |
| Both teams to score | 56.5% | fair 1.77 |
Most Likely Scores
| COV 1-1 BRE | 10.9% | |
| COV 1-2 BRE | 9.8% | |
| COV 0-1 BRE | 9.6% | |
| COV 0-2 BRE | 8.6% | |
| COV 2-1 BRE | 6.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 9.6 | 8.6 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 10.9 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 6.2 | 5.5 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: COV goals · Columns: BRE goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).