MUN vs SUN
Manchester United (home) vs Sunderland · model confidence 78% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
MUN win 54.0% fair 1.85
Draw 22.9% fair 4.37
SUN win 23.2% fair 4.32
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 55.3% / 22.7% / 22.0%.
Expected Goals
MUN
1.85
—
1.08
SUN
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.0% | fair 1.79 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44.0% | fair 2.27 |
| Both teams to score | 55.6% | fair 1.80 |
Most Likely Scores
| MUN 1-1 SUN | 10.7% | |
| MUN 1-0 SUN | 9.9% | |
| MUN 2-1 SUN | 9.9% | |
| MUN 2-0 SUN | 9.1% | |
| MUN 3-1 SUN | 6.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 5.8 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 10.7 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 6.1 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: MUN goals · Columns: SUN goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).