HUL vs LEE
Hull City (home) vs Leeds United · model confidence 72% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
HUL win 32.9% fair 3.04
Draw 26.4% fair 3.78
LEE win 40.6% fair 2.46
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 30.5% / 26.9% / 42.6%.
Expected Goals
HUL
1.11
—
1.36
LEE
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.9% | fair 2.23 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 55.1% | fair 1.81 |
| Both teams to score | 49.8% | fair 2.01 |
Most Likely Scores
| HUL 1-1 LEE | 12.8% | |
| HUL 0-1 LEE | 11.5% | |
| HUL 1-0 LEE | 9.4% | |
| HUL 1-2 LEE | 8.7% | |
| HUL 0-0 LEE | 8.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 11.5 | 7.8 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.8 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.1 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: HUL goals · Columns: LEE goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).