IPS vs CHE
Ipswich Town (home) vs Chelsea · model confidence 75% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
IPS win 26.0% fair 3.85
Draw 21.2% fair 4.72
CHE win 52.8% fair 1.89
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 22.7% / 20.7% / 56.5%.
Expected Goals
IPS
1.29
—
2.13
CHE
| Over 2.5 goals | 66.3% | fair 1.51 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 33.7% | fair 2.97 |
| Both teams to score | 63.8% | fair 1.57 |
Most Likely Scores
| IPS 1-2 CHE | 9.6% | |
| IPS 1-1 CHE | 9.0% | |
| IPS 0-2 CHE | 7.4% | |
| IPS 0-1 CHE | 7.0% | |
| IPS 1-3 CHE | 6.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 7.0 | 7.4 | 5.3 | 2.8 | 1.8 |
| 1 | 4.2 | 9.0 | 9.6 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 2.3 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 5.8 | 6.2 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 1.5 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: IPS goals · Columns: CHE goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).