TOT vs BHA
Tottenham Hotspur (home) vs Brighton & Hove Albion · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
TOT win 35.1% fair 2.85
Draw 22.6% fair 4.42
BHA win 42.3% fair 2.37
Expected Goals
TOT
1.58
—
1.82
BHA
| Over 2.5 goals | 66.1% | fair 1.51 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 33.9% | fair 2.95 |
| Both teams to score | 66.6% | fair 1.50 |
Most Likely Scores
| TOT 1-1 BHA | 9.6% | |
| TOT 1-2 BHA | 8.7% | |
| TOT 2-1 BHA | 7.6% | |
| TOT 2-2 BHA | 6.9% | |
| TOT 0-1 BHA | 6.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 6.1 | 5.5 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 9.6 | 8.7 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.6 | 6.9 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 4.0 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: TOT goals · Columns: BHA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).