NEW vs NFO
Newcastle United (home) vs Nottingham Forest · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
NEW win 51.6% fair 1.94
Draw 24.4% fair 4.10
NFO win 24.0% fair 4.17
Expected Goals
NEW
1.66
—
1.01
NFO
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.9% | fair 2.00 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50.1% | fair 2.00 |
| Both teams to score | 51.6% | fair 1.94 |
Most Likely Scores
| NEW 1-1 NFO | 11.6% | |
| NEW 1-0 NFO | 11.5% | |
| NEW 2-1 NFO | 9.6% | |
| NEW 2-0 NFO | 9.5% | |
| NEW 0-1 NFO | 7.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 7.0 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 11.6 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.6 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: NEW goals · Columns: NFO goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).