EVE vs MCI
Everton (home) vs Manchester City · model confidence 85% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
EVE win 22.6% fair 4.43
Draw 22.6% fair 4.43
MCI win 54.8% fair 1.82
Expected Goals
EVE
1.02
—
1.87
MCI
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.3% | fair 1.81 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44.7% | fair 2.24 |
| Both teams to score | 54.2% | fair 1.85 |
Most Likely Scores
| EVE 1-1 MCI | 10.6% | |
| EVE 0-1 MCI | 10.4% | |
| EVE 1-2 MCI | 9.9% | |
| EVE 0-2 MCI | 9.7% | |
| EVE 1-3 MCI | 6.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 10.4 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.5 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 10.6 | 9.9 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 5.4 | 5.1 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: EVE goals · Columns: MCI goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).