AVL vs LIV
Aston Villa (home) vs Liverpool · model confidence 85% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
AVL win 32.2% fair 3.11
Draw 24.7% fair 4.05
LIV win 43.1% fair 2.32
Expected Goals
AVL
1.27
—
1.57
LIV
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.0% | fair 1.85 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 46.0% | fair 2.17 |
| Both teams to score | 56.9% | fair 1.76 |
Most Likely Scores
| AVL 1-1 LIV | 11.7% | |
| AVL 0-1 LIV | 9.2% | |
| AVL 1-2 LIV | 9.1% | |
| AVL 1-0 LIV | 7.4% | |
| AVL 2-1 LIV | 7.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 9.2 | 7.2 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.7 | 9.1 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.4 | 5.8 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: AVL goals · Columns: LIV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).