CRY vs ARS
Crystal Palace (home) vs Arsenal · model confidence 86% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
CRY win 18.4% fair 5.43
Draw 22.2% fair 4.50
ARS win 59.4% fair 1.68
Expected Goals
CRY
0.82
—
1.86
ARS
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.3% | fair 1.99 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 49.7% | fair 2.01 |
| Both teams to score | 47.4% | fair 2.11 |
Most Likely Scores
| CRY 0-1 ARS | 12.7% | |
| CRY 0-2 ARS | 11.8% | |
| CRY 1-1 ARS | 10.5% | |
| CRY 1-2 ARS | 9.7% | |
| CRY 0-3 ARS | 7.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 12.7 | 11.8 | 7.3 | 3.4 | 1.8 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 10.5 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 2.3 | 4.3 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: CRY goals · Columns: ARS goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).