NEW vs MCI
Newcastle United (home) vs Manchester City · model confidence 85% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
NEW win 30.5% fair 3.28
Draw 22.5% fair 4.44
MCI win 47.0% fair 2.13
Expected Goals
NEW
1.42
—
1.89
MCI
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.3% | fair 1.56 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 35.7% | fair 2.80 |
| Both teams to score | 64.4% | fair 1.55 |
Most Likely Scores
| NEW 1-1 MCI | 9.8% | |
| NEW 1-2 MCI | 9.2% | |
| NEW 2-1 MCI | 7.0% | |
| NEW 0-1 MCI | 6.9% | |
| NEW 2-2 MCI | 6.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 6.9 | 6.5 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 9.8 | 9.2 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 7.0 | 6.6 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: NEW goals · Columns: MCI goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).