COV vs CHE
Coventry City (home) vs Chelsea · model confidence 75% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
COV win 22.1% fair 4.52
Draw 20.5% fair 4.87
CHE win 57.3% fair 1.74
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 18.2% / 20.0% / 61.8%.
Expected Goals
COV
1.09
—
2.17
CHE
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.3% | fair 1.58 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 36.7% | fair 2.72 |
| Both teams to score | 58.9% | fair 1.70 |
Most Likely Scores
| COV 1-2 CHE | 9.9% | |
| COV 1-1 CHE | 9.1% | |
| COV 0-2 CHE | 9.0% | |
| COV 0-1 CHE | 8.3% | |
| COV 1-3 CHE | 7.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 8.3 | 9.0 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 2.3 |
| 1 | 4.2 | 9.1 | 9.9 | 7.1 | 3.9 | 2.5 |
| 2 | 2.3 | 5.0 | 5.4 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 1.4 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: COV goals · Columns: CHE goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).