NFO vs EVE
Nottingham Forest (home) vs Everton · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
NFO win 41.4% fair 2.42
Draw 28.4% fair 3.52
EVE win 30.2% fair 3.31
Expected Goals
NFO
1.21
—
0.99
EVE
| Over 2.5 goals | 37.7% | fair 2.65 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 62.3% | fair 1.60 |
| Both teams to score | 44.1% | fair 2.27 |
Most Likely Scores
| NFO 1-0 EVE | 13.4% | |
| NFO 1-1 EVE | 13.3% | |
| NFO 0-0 EVE | 11.1% | |
| NFO 0-1 EVE | 11.0% | |
| NFO 2-0 EVE | 8.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 11.0 | 5.5 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 13.3 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: NFO goals · Columns: EVE goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).