MCI vs HUL
Manchester City (home) vs Hull City · model confidence 77% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
MCI win 74.6% fair 1.34
Draw 14.7% fair 6.81
HUL win 10.7% fair 9.31
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 79.2% / 13.2% / 7.6%.
Expected Goals
MCI
2.77
—
0.76
HUL
| Over 2.5 goals | 68.3% | fair 1.46 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 31.7% | fair 3.16 |
| Both teams to score | 49.7% | fair 2.01 |
Most Likely Scores
| MCI 2-0 HUL | 11.3% | |
| MCI 3-0 HUL | 10.4% | |
| MCI 2-1 HUL | 8.5% | |
| MCI 1-0 HUL | 8.2% | |
| MCI 3-1 HUL | 7.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 6.2 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 11.3 | 8.5 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 10.4 | 7.9 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 7.2 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 6.9 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: MCI goals · Columns: HUL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).