BRE vs NEW
Brentford (home) vs Newcastle United · model confidence 83% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
BRE win 40.6% fair 2.46
Draw 23.9% fair 4.18
NEW win 35.5% fair 2.82
Expected Goals
BRE
1.58
—
1.49
NEW
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.3% | fair 1.69 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 40.7% | fair 2.46 |
| Both teams to score | 61.5% | fair 1.62 |
Most Likely Scores
| BRE 1-1 NEW | 10.9% | |
| BRE 2-1 NEW | 8.6% | |
| BRE 1-2 NEW | 8.1% | |
| BRE 1-0 NEW | 7.3% | |
| BRE 0-1 NEW | 6.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 6.9 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 10.9 | 8.1 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.6 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.6 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: BRE goals · Columns: NEW goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).