BOU vs COV
AFC Bournemouth (home) vs Coventry City · model confidence 74% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
BOU win 61.0% fair 1.64
Draw 20.3% fair 4.92
COV win 18.7% fair 5.34
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 63.9% / 19.6% / 16.5%.
Expected Goals
BOU
2.17
—
1.01
COV
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.6% | fair 1.62 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 38.4% | fair 2.60 |
| Both teams to score | 56.3% | fair 1.78 |
Most Likely Scores
| BOU 2-1 COV | 9.9% | |
| BOU 2-0 COV | 9.8% | |
| BOU 1-1 COV | 9.1% | |
| BOU 1-0 COV | 9.0% | |
| BOU 3-1 COV | 7.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 9.1 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.9 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.1 | 7.2 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 2.5 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: BOU goals · Columns: COV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).