ARS vs MUN
Arsenal (home) vs Manchester United · model confidence 84% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
ARS win 67.7% fair 1.48
Draw 19.0% fair 5.27
MUN win 13.3% fair 7.52
Expected Goals
ARS
2.17
—
0.74
MUN
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.5% | fair 1.80 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44.5% | fair 2.25 |
| Both teams to score | 46.3% | fair 2.16 |
Most Likely Scores
| ARS 2-0 MUN | 12.8% | |
| ARS 1-0 MUN | 11.8% | |
| ARS 2-1 MUN | 9.5% | |
| ARS 3-0 MUN | 9.3% | |
| ARS 1-1 MUN | 8.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 8.8 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 12.8 | 9.5 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 9.3 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 5.0 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 3.3 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: ARS goals · Columns: MUN goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).