SUN vs CRY
Sunderland (home) vs Crystal Palace · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
SUN win 36.3% fair 2.76
Draw 25.3% fair 3.96
CRY win 38.4% fair 2.60
Expected Goals
SUN
1.33
—
1.43
CRY
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.2% | fair 1.92 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47.8% | fair 2.09 |
| Both teams to score | 56.0% | fair 1.79 |
Most Likely Scores
| SUN 1-1 CRY | 12.0% | |
| SUN 0-1 CRY | 9.0% | |
| SUN 1-2 CRY | 8.6% | |
| SUN 1-0 CRY | 8.4% | |
| SUN 2-1 CRY | 8.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 9.0 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.0 | 8.6 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.0 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: SUN goals · Columns: CRY goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).