IPS vs NEW
Ipswich Town (home) vs Newcastle United · model confidence 68%
Match Outcome
IPS win 25.5% fair 3.93
Draw 21.9% fair 4.56
NEW win 52.6% fair 1.90
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 20.9% / 21.5% / 57.6%.
Expected Goals
IPS
1.12
—
2.00
NEW
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.3% | fair 1.66 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 39.7% | fair 2.52 |
| Both teams to score | 58.3% | fair 1.72 |
Most Likely Scores
| IPS 1-1 NEW | 9.9% | |
| IPS 1-2 NEW | 9.9% | |
| IPS 0-1 NEW | 8.8% | |
| IPS 0-2 NEW | 8.8% | |
| IPS 1-3 NEW | 6.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 8.8 | 8.8 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 1.7 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 9.9 | 9.9 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.9 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: IPS goals · Columns: NEW goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).