IPS vs NEW
Ipswich Town (home) vs Newcastle United · model confidence 75% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
IPS win 28.5% fair 3.51
Draw 22.7% fair 4.41
NEW win 48.8% fair 2.05
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 25.7% / 22.5% / 51.8%.
Expected Goals
IPS
1.27
—
1.88
NEW
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.1% | fair 1.64 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 38.9% | fair 2.57 |
| Both teams to score | 61.0% | fair 1.64 |
Most Likely Scores
| IPS 1-1 NEW | 10.2% | |
| IPS 1-2 NEW | 9.6% | |
| IPS 0-1 NEW | 8.0% | |
| IPS 0-2 NEW | 7.6% | |
| IPS 2-1 NEW | 6.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 8.0 | 7.6 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 10.2 | 9.6 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 6.5 | 6.1 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: IPS goals · Columns: NEW goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).