LIV vs LEE
Liverpool (home) vs Leeds United · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
LIV win 60.8% fair 1.64
Draw 21.6% fair 4.63
LEE win 17.6% fair 5.69
Expected Goals
LIV
1.94
—
0.86
LEE
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.1% | fair 1.88 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 46.9% | fair 2.13 |
| Both teams to score | 49.5% | fair 2.02 |
Most Likely Scores
| LIV 1-0 LEE | 11.8% | |
| LIV 2-0 LEE | 11.4% | |
| LIV 1-1 LEE | 10.1% | |
| LIV 2-1 LEE | 9.8% | |
| LIV 3-0 LEE | 7.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 10.1 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.4 | 9.8 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.4 | 6.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3.6 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 2.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: LIV goals · Columns: LEE goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).