LIV vs LEE
Liverpool (home) vs Leeds United · model confidence 78%
Match Outcome
LIV win 67.4% fair 1.48
Draw 17.8% fair 5.61
LEE win 14.8% fair 6.77
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 70.8% / 16.9% / 12.3%.
Expected Goals
LIV
2.44
—
0.92
LEE
| Over 2.5 goals | 65.3% | fair 1.53 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 34.7% | fair 2.88 |
| Both teams to score | 55.0% | fair 1.82 |
Most Likely Scores
| LIV 2-0 LEE | 10.3% | |
| LIV 2-1 LEE | 9.5% | |
| LIV 1-0 LEE | 8.5% | |
| LIV 3-0 LEE | 8.4% | |
| LIV 1-1 LEE | 7.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 7.8 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.5 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.4 | 7.7 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.1 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 4.0 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: LIV goals · Columns: LEE goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).