MCI vs CHE
Manchester City (home) vs Chelsea · model confidence 82%
Match Outcome
MCI win 54.0% fair 1.85
Draw 21.5% fair 4.64
CHE win 24.4% fair 4.09
Expected Goals
MCI
2.05
—
1.29
CHE
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.8% | fair 1.54 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 35.2% | fair 2.84 |
| Both teams to score | 63.1% | fair 1.59 |
Most Likely Scores
| MCI 2-1 CHE | 9.6% | |
| MCI 1-1 CHE | 9.4% | |
| MCI 2-0 CHE | 7.5% | |
| MCI 1-0 CHE | 7.3% | |
| MCI 3-1 CHE | 6.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 4.6 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 9.4 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.6 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 6.6 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.4 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: MCI goals · Columns: CHE goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).