MCI vs CHE
Manchester City (home) vs Chelsea · model confidence 85% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
MCI win 57.8% fair 1.73
Draw 19.9% fair 5.02
CHE win 22.2% fair 4.50
Expected Goals
MCI
2.30
—
1.34
CHE
| Over 2.5 goals | 70.4% | fair 1.42 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 29.6% | fair 3.38 |
| Both teams to score | 66.4% | fair 1.51 |
Most Likely Scores
| MCI 2-1 CHE | 9.3% | |
| MCI 1-1 CHE | 8.1% | |
| MCI 3-1 CHE | 7.1% | |
| MCI 2-0 CHE | 7.0% | |
| MCI 2-2 CHE | 6.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 8.1 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.3 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 7.1 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 2.2 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Rows: MCI goals · Columns: CHE goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).